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Government of India
Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation
28-February-2017 17:45 IST
Second Advance Estimates of National Income, 2016-17 And

Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for The Third Quarter (OCT-DEC), 2016-17


This Press Release is embargoed against publication, telecast or circulation on internet till 5.30 pm today i.e. 28th February 2017.

 

 

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation have released the Second Advance estimates of national income at constant (2011-12) and current prices for the financial year 2016-17. These are presented in Statements 1-4.

 

2.         The Second Advance Estimates of GDP have been released in accordance with the release calendar of National Accounts@. The approach for compiling the advance estimates is based on benchmark-indicator method. The Sector-wise estimates are obtained by extrapolation of  indicators like (i) Index of Industrial Production of first 9 months of the financial year, (ii) financial performance of listed companies in the private corporate sector available upto quarter ending December, 2016 (ii) Second advance estimates of crop production, (iii) accounts of  Central & State Governments, information on indicators like sales tax, deposits & credits, passenger and freight earnings of railways, passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation, cargo handled at major sea ports, sales of commercial vehicles etc. available for first 9/10 months of the financial year.

3.       Quarterly estimates of GDP for the third quarter October-December (Q3), 2016-17 both at constant (2011-12) and current prices along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of GDP are also being released. Quarterly estimates of previous years along with the first and second quarter estimates of 2016-17 released earlier have undergone revision in accordance with the revision policy of National Accounts. Quarterly estimates for the years 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2016-17 are presented in Statements 5 to 8.

 

4.  GDP growth rates for 2016-17 and Q1, Q2, Q3 of 2016-17 at constant (2011-12) and current prices are given below:

Growth Rates of GDP

 

Constant prices  (2011-12)

Current prices

Annual 2016-17 (Second advance)

7.1

11.5

Q12016-17(April-June)

7.2

10.8

Q2 2016-17(July-Sep)

7.4

11.8

Q3 2016-17(Oct-Dec)

7.0

10.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@http://mospi.nic.in/sites/default/files/press_releases_statements/Modification_Rev%20Policy_16.11.2016.pdf

 

I           SECOND ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2016-17

 

A.                ESTIMATES  AT  CONSTANT (2011-12)  PRICES

 

Gross Domestic Product

 

5.          Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2016-17 is likely to attain a level of  `121.65 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2015-16 of `113.58 lakh crore, released on 31st January 2017. The growth in GDP during 2016-17 is estimated at 7.1 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 7.9 per cent in 2015-16.

 

Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices

 

6.         Real GVA, i.e, GVA at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from `104.70 lakh crore in 2015-16 to `111.68 lakh crore in 2016-17. Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2016-17 is 6.7 percent against 7.8 percent in 2015-16.

 

7.        The sectors which are likely to register growth rate of over 7.0 percent are ‘public administration, defence and other services’, 'manufacturing' and ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’. The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’, ‘construction’ and 'financial, real estate and professional services' is estimated to be 4.4 percent,                1.3 percent, 6.6 per cent, 3.1 percent and 6.5 percent respectively.

 

8.  Industry analysis

 

Agriculture

 

8.1.      The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector is likely to show a growth of 4.4 per cent in its GVA during 2016-17, as against the previous year’s growth rate of 0.8 per cent. The GVA estimates of this sector have been compiled using the Second Advance Estimates of production of food grains for 2016-17.  According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), the production growth of  food grains  during  the  Kharif  and Rabi seasons of agriculture year 2016-17 was 9.9 percent and 6.3 per cent respectively as compared to decline of 2.3 percent and growth of 2.0 per cent respectively in the previous agriculture year. Crops including fruits and vegetables account for about 60.0 percent of GDP in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector. Around 40.0 percent of GVA of this sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which is expected to register a combined growth of around 4.2 percent in 2016-17.

 

 

 

 

Mining and quarrying

 

8.2.   The growth in the GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector is estimated to be 1.3 percent as compared to growth of 12.3 percent in 2015-16. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and natural gas registered growth rates of 2.0 per cent, (-)3.2 percent, (-)3.3 percent during April-December,2016-17 as compared to 4.5 percent,(-)0.8 percent and  (-)2.8 per cent   during April-December,2015-16.  IIP mining grew by 0.9 percent in April-December, 2016-17 as against 2.3 percent in April-December, 2015-16.  The private corporate sector growth in the mining sector as per latest available information on  major listed companies during first nine months  of 2016-17 was used.

 

Manufacturing

 

8.3      The growth in the GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from ‘manufacturing’ sector is estimated to be 7.7 percent as compared to growth of 10.6 percent in 2015-16.  The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of around 71.0 percent in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available data of listed companies was 12.9 percent at current prices in April-December 2016-17. GVA from quasi corporate and unorganized segment (which has a share of around 21.5 percent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. IIP from manufacturing sector registered a growth rate of (-) 0.5 per cent during April-December 2016-17. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the manufactured products  registered a growth of  2.4 per cent during April-January, 2016-17 as compared to (-)1.3 percent during April-January, 2015-16

 

Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services

 

8.4    GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from ‘Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ sector is estimated to grow by 6.6 percent as compared to growth of 5.1 percent in 2015-16. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered a growth rate of 5.1 per cent during April-December, 2016-17 as compared to growth of 4.5 percent during April-December, 2015-16

.

Construction

 

8.5   GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from ‘Construction’ sector is estimated to grow by 3.1 percent as compared to growth of 2.8 percent in 2015-16. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 2.8 per cent and 3.3 percent, respectively, during April-December, 2016-17.

 

Trade, hotels and Transport & communication and services related to broadcasting

 

8.6.   GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from this sector is estimated to grow by 7.3 percent as compared to growth of 10.7 percent in 2015-16. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the sales tax growth. As per the available monthly data on state accounts available from CAG website, sales tax collection grew by 10.7 percent during April-December, 2016-17. Indicator used for measuring GVA from hotels and restaurant sector is the private corporate growth in this sector. Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rate of (-)7.2 per cent and (-)0.8 percent respectively during April-December 2016-17. In case of other transport sectors, passengers handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled by the civil aviation and cargo handled at major sea ports registered growth rates of 19.6 percent, 10.3 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively, during April-December of 2016-17. Sales of commercial vehicles registered 3.5 percent growth during April-December of 2016-17.

 

Financial, insurance, real estate and professional services

 

8.7    GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from this sector is estimated to grow by 6.5 percent as compared to growth of 10.8 percent in 2015-16. Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 71.0 percent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for real estate sector and computer related activities which was estimated from latest available information on listed companies for the first nine months of 2016-17. As per available information upto February, 2017 aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 13.5 per cent and 5.0 per cent, respectively.

 

Public administration and defence and other services

 

8.8    GVA at basic prices for 2016-17 from this sector is estimated to grow by 11.2 per cent as compared to growth of 6.9 percent in 2015-16. The key indicator of this sector namely, union government revenue expenditure net of interest payments grew by 16.9 percent during April-December, 2016-17 as compared to 0.4  percent in April-December 2015-16.

 

Per Capita Income

 

9.         The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2016-17 is likely to attain a level of `82,112 as compared to `77524 for the year 2015-16. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 5.9 per cent during 2016-17, as against 6.6 per cent in the previous year.

 

10.     Price indices used as deflators

 

             The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups  food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 5.4 per cent, 2.4 per cent, (-)1.4 per cent and 3.1 percent, respectively during April-January, 2016-17. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 4.7 per cent during April-January, 2016-17.

 

B.      ESTIMATES AT CURRENT PRICES

 

Gross Domestic Product

 

11.       GDP is derived by adding taxes on products net of subsidies on products to GVA at basic prices. GDP at current prices in the year 2016-17 is likely to attain a level of `152.51 lakh crore, as against `136.75 lakh crore in 2015-16 showing a growth rate of 11.5per cent.

 

National Income

 

12.       The nominal Net National Income (NNI), also known as national income (at current prices) is likely to be `134.86 lakh crore during 2016-17, as against `120.83 lakh crore for the year 2015-16. In terms of growth rates, the national income registered a growth rate of 11.6 per cent in 2016-17 as against the previous year’s growth rate of 10.2 per cent.

 

Per Capita Income

 

13.       The per capita net national income during 2016-17 is estimated to be `103,818 showing a rise of  10.2 percent as compared to `94,178 during 2015-16 with the growth rate of 8.9 percent.

 

II    ANNUAL  ESTIMATES  OF  FINAL  EXPENDITURES  OF  GDP, 2016-17

 

14.       Along with the second advance estimates of GVA at basic prices by economic activity, the second advance estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2011-12) prices are also released. These estimates have been compiled using the data from the same sources as those used for compiling GVA estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and expenditure of Central Government. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices only.

 

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

 

15.       Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `88.40 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against `79.00 lakh crore in 2015-16. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at `68.26 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against `63.66 lakh crore in 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2016-17 are estimated at 58.0 per cent and 56.1 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 57.8 per cent and 56.1 per cent, respectively in 2015-16.

 

 

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

 

16.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at `17.23 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against `14.12 lakh crore in 2015-16. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `12.91 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against `11.03 lakh crore in 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2016-17  are estimated at 11.3 per cent and 10.6per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 10.3 per cent and 9.7 per cent, respectively in 2015-16.

 

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

17.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `40.97 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against `39.89 lakh crore in 2015-16. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCF is estimated at `35.55 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against `35.35 lakh crore in 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2016-17 are estimated at 26.9 percent and 29.2 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.2 per cent and 31.1 per cent, respectively in 2015-16. The GFCF is expected to register growth rate of 2.7 percent at current prices and 0.6 percent at constant prices.

 

18.       Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at basic prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures of GDP for the years 2014-15 and 2015-16 and 2016-17, at constant (2011-12) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.

 

III      QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE THIRD QUARTER (OCTOBER-DECEMBER) OF 2016-17

 

(a) Estimates at constant (2011-12) prices

19.       The first three quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2 and Q3. GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2016-17 is estimated at `30.28 lakh crore, as against `28.31 lakh crore in Q3 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 7.0 percent. GVA at basic prices at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2016-17 is estimated at `28.02 lakh crore, as against `26.28 lakh crore in Q3 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 6.6 percent.

20.       Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’(6.0percent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (7.5 percent), ‘manufacturing’ (8.3 percent), ‘electricity, gas and water supply and other utility services’ (6.8 percent) ‘construction’ (2.7 percent), Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting ' (7.2 percent), 'financial, real estate and  professional  services ' (3.1 percent), and Public administration, defence  and Other Services' (11.9 percent).

21.       The estimated growth of the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity are 2.8 percent, 0.2 percent and 5.2 percent respectively, in Q3 of 2016-17.

 

22.       The key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of (-)4.8 per cent and (-)1.3 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2016-17, as against the growth rates of (-)6.9 percent and 0.8 percent, in the corresponding period of previous year.  In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles and cargo handled at major ports, registered growth rates of (-)1.1 percent and 12.5 percent respectively in Q3 of 2016-17.

 

23.       The PFCE and GFCF at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2016-17 are estimated at `17.78 lakh crore and `8.80 lakh crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2016-17 is 58.7 percent and 29.1 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 57.1 percent and 30.0 percent, respectively in Q3 of 2015-16.GFCE at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2016-17 is estimated at `3.17 lakh crore as against `2.64 lakh crore in Q3 of 2015-16. The rates of GFCE as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2016-17 is 10.5 percent as against the corresponding rate of 9.3 percent in Q3 of 2015-16.

 

(b) Estimates at current prices

 

24.       GDP at current prices in Q3 of 2016-17 is estimated at `38.14 lakhcrore, as against `34.47 lakh crore in Q3 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 10.6 percent.GVA at current basic prices in Q3 of 2016-17 is estimated at `34.90 lakh crore, as against `31.71 lakhcrore in Q3 of 2015-16, showing a growth of 10.1 percent.

 

25.       The PFCE and GFCF at current prices in Q3 of 2016-17are estimated at `23.13 lakh crore and `10.18 lakh crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2016-17are estimated at 60.7 percent and 26.7 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.7 percent and 27.9 percent, respectively in Q3 of 2015-16.GFCE at current  prices in Q3 of 2016-17 is  estimated at `4.27 lakh crore as against `3.44 lakh crore in Q3 of 2015-16. The rates of GFCE as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2016-17 is 11.2 percent as against the corresponding rate of 10.0 percent in Q3 of 2015-16.

 

26.       Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at basic prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP  for Second Advance  Estimates , third quarter (Q3) and October-December estimates for years, 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 at constant (2011-12) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 12.

 

27.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter January-March, 2017 (Q4 of 2016-17) and provisional annual estimates for the year 2016-17 will be on 31.05.2017.

 

 

 

STATEMENT 1: Second Advance Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2016-17

( At 2011- 12 Prices)

(` crore)

(

Item

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

Percentage change over previous year

S.No

 

( 2nd RE )

(1st RE)

(2nd AE)

2015-16

2016-17

 

Domestic Product

 

 

 

 

1

GVA at basic prices

9709347

10469720

11168315

7.8

6.7

2

Net taxes on products

813339

887809

997166

9.2

12.3

3

GDP (1+2)

10522686

11357529

12165481

7.9

7.1

4

NDP

9337045

10080883

10803651

8.0

7.2

 

Final Expenditures

 

 

 

 

 

5

PFCE

5931497

6366043

6825585

7.3

7.2

6

GFCE

1072013

1102961

1290553

2.9

17.0

7

GFCF

3331857

3535296

3555361

6.1

0.6

8

CIS

243740

263071

308426

7.9

17.2

9

VALUABLES

188334

179371

118069

-4.8

-34.2

10

Exports of goods and services

2510405

2375780

2429413

-5.4

2.3

11

Less Imports of goods and services

2666744

2510401

2480531

-5.9

-1.2

12

Discrepancies

-88416

45407

118605

 

 

13

GDP

10522686

11357529

12165481

7.9

7.1

 

RATES TO GDP

 

 

 

 

 

14

PFCE

56.4

56.1

56.1

 

 

15

GFCE

10.2

9.7

10.6

 

 

            16

GFCF

31.7

31.1

29.2

 

 

17

CIS

2.3

2.3

2.5

 

 

18

VALUABLES

1.8

1.6

1.0

 

 

19

Exports of goods and services

23.9

20.9

20.0

 

 

20

Less Imports of goods and services

25.3

22.1

20.4

 

 

21

Discrepancies

-0.8

0.4

1.0

 

 

22

GDP

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 

23

GNI

10398251

11222933

12028134

7.9

7.2

24

NNI

9212611

9946287

10666303

8.0

7.2

 Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption  

 

25

Population* (in million)

1267

1283

1299

1.3

1.2

26

Per Capita GDP

83052

88523

93653

6.6

5.8

27

Per Capita GNI

82070

87474

92595

6.6

5.9

28

Per Capita NNI

72712

77524

82112

6.6

5.9

29

Per Capita PFCE

46815

49618

52545

6.0

5.9

* Relates to mid-financial year

 

 

 

RE: Revised estimates; AE: Advance Estimates

 

 

STATEMENT 2: Second Advance Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2016-17

( At Current Prices)

(` crore)

S.No

Item

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

  Percentage change over previous year

 

( 2nd RE )

(1st RE)

(2nd AE)

2015-16

2016-17

Domestic Product

 

 

 

1

GVA at basic prices

11470415

12451938

13750786

8.6

10.4

2

Net taxes on products

963334

1223393

1500242

27.0

22.6

3

GDP (1+2)

12433749

13675331

15251028

10.0

11.5

4

NDP

11108576

12242873

13653519

10.2

11.5

Final Expenditures

 

 

 

 

 

5

PFCE

7272782

7899520

8839537

8.6

11.9

6

GFCE

1298050

1412064

1723373

8.8

22.0

7

GFCF

3762477

3989219

4096637

6.0

2.7

8

CIS

278411

291745

319773

4.8

9.6

9

VALUABLES

209407

197256

131175

-5.8

-33.5

10

Exports of goods and services

2863541

2728643

2864543

-4.7

5.0

11

Less Imports of goods and services

3235965

3044917

3059370

-5.9

0.5

12

Discrepancies

-14954

201801

335361

 

 

13

GDP

12433749

13675331

15251028

10.0

11.5

RATES TO GDP

 

 

 

 

 

14

PFCE

58.5

57.8

58.0

 

 

15

GFCE

10.4

10.3

11.3

 

 

16

GFCF

30.3

29.2

26.9

 

 

17

CIS

2.2

2.1

2.1

 

 

18

VALUABLES

1.7

1.4

0.9

 

 

19

Exports of goods and services

23.0

20.0

18.8

 

 

20

Less Imports of goods and services

26.0

22.3

20.1

 

 

21

Discrepancies

-0.1

1.5

2.2

 

 

22

GDP

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 

23

GNI

12286319

13515551

15083417

10.0

11.6

24

NNI

10961146

12083093

13485908

10.2

11.6

25

GNDI

12691473

13928634

15496512

9.7

11.3

26

NNDI

11366300

12496176

13899003

9.9

11.2

 Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption  

 

 

27

Per Capita GDP

98135

106589

117406

8.6

10.1

28