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Government of India
Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation
30-November-2018 17:30 IST
Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the Second Quarter (July-September) of 2018-19

The  Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of  Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product(GDP)for thesecond quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2018-19, both at Constant(2011-12) and Current Prices, along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.

 

2.         The details of estimates of GDP for Q2 of 2018-19arepresented below:

 

I           ESTIMATES OF GVA BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

 

(a)        At Constant (2011-2012) Prices

 

3.         GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q2 of 2018-19 is estimated at `33.98 lakh crore, as against `31.72lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 7.1 percent.  Quarterly GVA (Basic Price) at Constant (2011-2012) Prices for Q2 of 2018-19 is estimated at `31.40 lakh crore, as against `29.38lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 6.9 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

 

4.         The Economic Activities which registered growth of over 7 percent in Q2 of 2018-19 over Q2 of 2017-18 are ‘Manufacturing, ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services’‘Construction’ and‘Public Administration, Defence and Other Services’. The growth in the ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’, ‘Mining and Quarrying’, ‘Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting’ and Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services is estimated to be 3.8 percent, (-) 2.4 percent, 6.8 percent, and 6.3 percent respectively during this period.

 

5.         Industry Analysis

            The second quarter estimates are based on Agricultural production during Kharif season of 2018-19obtained from theDepartment of Agriculture, Cooperation&Farmer Welfare (DAC& FW), abridged financial results of Listed Companies from BSE/NSE, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government Expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) for the period July-September2018-19. Performance of key sectors like Transport including Railways, Road, Air and Water Transport, etc., Communication, Banking and Insurance during the period July-September2018-19 have been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the Corporatesector during July-September2018based on data received from BSE/NSE hasbeen taken into account. With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1st July 2017 and consequent changes in the Tax Structure, the total Tax Revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST Revenue and GST Revenue based on GSTR filings as provided by Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs, Ministry of Finance.Estimated growth in the indicator compiled on the basis of employee expenses, profit before tax and depreciation of Listed Companies deflated by appropriate price indices has been used to extrapolate the Corporatesector estimates of the same quarter of the previous year.

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

5.1    Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ sector grew by 3.8 percent as compared to growth of 2.6percent in Q22017-18. According tothe  information  furnished  by  the  Department of Agriculture, Cooperation&Farmer Welfare (DAC& FW), which has been used  in compiling the estimate of GVA from agriculture in Q2 of 2018-19, the production of Food Grains during the Kharif season of agriculture year 2018-19 grew by0.6percent as compared to growth of 1.7percent during the same period in2017-18.Around 55percent of GVA of this sector is based on the Livestock products, Forestry and Fisheries, which registereda combined growth of about6.7percent in Q2 of 2018-19.

 

Mining and Quarrying

5.2.Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from ‘Mining and Quarrying’ sector declined by2.4percent as compared to growth of 6.9percent in Q22017-18.  The key indicators of Mining sector, namely, production of Coal, Crude Oil and Natural Gas and IIP Mining registered growth rates of6.2percent, (-) 4.4 percent,(-) 2.0 percent and 1.0 percent, during Q2 of2018-19 as compared to 8.5 percent, (-) 0.7 percent, 4.7 percent and 7.1 percentrespectively, during Q2 of 2017-18.

Manufacturing

 

5.3   Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from ‘Manufacturing’ sector grew by 7.4percent as compared to growth of 7.1percent in Q22017-18. The Private Corporate sector growth (which has a share of over75 percent in the Manufacturing sector)was estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE.  The Quasi -Corporate and Unorganized segment (which has a share of over20percent in the Manufacturing sector)has been estimated using IIP of Manufacturing. IIP Manufacturing registered growth rate of5.5percent during Q2 of2018-19 as compared to 2.5 percent during Q2 of 2017-18.

 

Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services

5.4   Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from ‘Electricity,Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ sector grew by 9.2percent as compared to growth of 7.7percent in Q22017-18. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of7.5percent during Q2 of2018-19 as compared to 6.1percent in Q2 of 2017-18.

Construction

5.5       Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 7.8percent as compared to growth of 3.1percent in Q22017-18.  Key indicators of Construction sector, namely, production of Cement and Consumption of finished Steel registered growth rates of12.5percent and7.2 percentrespectively, during Q2 of2018-19 as compared to 0.6percent,7.6percent respectively, in Q2 of 2017-18.

Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting

5.6.                        Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from this sector grew by 6.8 percent as compared to growth of 8.5percent in Q22017-18. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the Sales Tax growth. With introduction of GST, Sales Tax data is now subsumed under GST. Therefore, a comparable estimate of turnover based on Sales Tax has been estimated. Methodology of estimation is as explained in the Annex to the press note on estimates of GDP for the second quarter (July-September) of 2017-18 released on 30thNovember, 2017. Indicator used for measuring GVA from Hotels and Restaurant sector is the Private Corporate growth in this sector. Among the Other Services sectors, Cargo handled at Major Sea Ports, Cargo handled by the Civil Aviation and passengers handled by the Civil Aviation registered growth rates of6.4 percent, 5.5 percent and 16.2 percent respectively, during July-September, 2018-19. Indicators of Railways sector, namely, Net Tonne Kilometers and Passenger Kilometers have shown growth of 6.9 percent and 2.2 percent respectively, duringQ2 of 2018-19.

 

Financial,Real Estate and Professional Services

5.7       Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from this sector grew by6.3percent as compared to growth of 6.1percent in Q22017-18.  Major component of this industry is the Real Estate and Professional Services which has a share of over 75percent.The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of Corporate sector for Real Estate, Business Services andComputer Related Activities which are estimated from available data from listed companies. The other indicators of this sector, viz., AggregateBankDeposits, and Bank Credits have shown growth rates of8.1 percent and12.5percent respectively as compared to 8.2 percent and 6.5percentrespectively during 2017-18.

                                                                  

Public Administration, Defence and Other Services

5.8       Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices for Q22018-19 from this sector grew by 10.9percent as   compared to growth of 6.1percent in Q22017-18. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government Revenue Expenditure net of Interest Payments excluding Subsidies,grew by 22.2percent during Q2 of 2018-19 as compared to 0.8percent in Q2 of 2017-18.

 

 

(b)       At Current Prices

6.         GDP is derived by adding Taxes on Products net of Subsidies on Products to GVA at Basic Prices. GDP at Current Prices in Q2 of 2018-19 is estimated at `45.54 lakh crore, as against `40.68 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 12.0 percent. GVA at Basic Price at Current Prices in Q2 of 2018-19, is estimated at `41.46 lakh crore, as against `37.03lakh crore in Q2, 2017-18, showing an increase of12.0 percent.Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’ (2.8 percent), ‘Mining and Quarrying’ (20.7 percent), ‘Manufacturing’ (12.2 percent), ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Other Utility Services’ (16.3 percent), ‘Construction’ (13.2 percent), 'Trade, Hotels, Transport and Communication' (12.3percent), 'Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services' (12.5 percent), and ‘Public Administration, Defence and Other Services' (16.1 percent).

 

(c)        Price Indices used as Deflators

7.         The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), in respect of the groups - Minerals, Manufactured products, Electricity and All Commodities, has registered a growth of 8.2 percent, 4.4 percent, 6.4 percent and 5.0percent respectively whereas Food Articles declined by 2.1 percent during Q2 of 2018-19over Q2 of 2017-18. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a rise of 3.9percent duringQ2 of 2018-19as compared to growth of 3.0 percent during Q2 of 2017-18.

 

II         ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP

8.                                    The components of Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, namely, Consumption Expenditure and Capital Formation, are normally measured at Market Prices.  The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of Market Prices.

 

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

9.                                    Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at `26.31 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`23.58 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18.  At Constant (2011-12) Prices, the PFCE is estimated at`18.52 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`17.30 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at Current and Constant (2011-2012) Prices during Q2 of 2018-19 are estimated at 57.8 percent and54.5 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.0 per cent and 54.5 per cent respectively in Q2 of 2017-18.Growth rates of PFCE at Current and Constant Prices are estimated at 11.6 percent and 7.0 percent during Q2 of 2018-19 as compared to 9.9 percent and 6.8 percent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18.

 

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

10.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Current Prices is estimated at`5.99lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`5.10 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18.At Constant (2011-2012) Prices, the GFCE is estimated at`4.22lakhcrore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`3.74lakh crorein Q2 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at Current andConstant(2011-2012) Prices during Q2 of 2018-19are estimatedat13.1 percent and12.4 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of12.5 percent and11.8percentrespectively in Q2 of 2017-18.Growth rates of GFCE at Current and Constant Prices are estimated at 17.3 percent and 12.7 percent respectively during Q2 of 2018-19 as compared to 6.9 percent and 3.8 percent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

11.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at Current Prices is estimated at`13.28 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`11.37 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18. At Constant (2011-2012) Prices, the GFCF is estimated at`10.99 lakh crore in Q2 of 2018-19 as against`9.77 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at Current and Constant (2011-2012) Prices during Q2 of 2018-19 are estimated at29.2 percent and32.3 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 27.9 percent and30.8percent, respectively in Q2 of 2017-18. Growth rates of GFCF at Current and Constant Prices are estimated at 16.8 percent and 12.5 percent during Q2 of 2018-19 as compared to 8.4 percent and 6.1 percent during Q2 of 2017-18.

 

12.       Estimates of GVA at Basic Price by kind of Economic Activity and the Expenditures on GDP in Q2(duringJuly-September) and in H1 (half yearly duringApril-September) of2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19 at Constant (2011-2012) and Current Prices, aregiven in Statements1 to 8.

 

13.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2018 (Q3 of 2018-19) will be on 28.02.2019.

 

STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19

(at 2011-12 Prices)

Industry  

(`in crore)

Percentage change

GVA at Basic Price

over previous year

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2017-18

2018-19

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

  1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

386986

324733

398609

333334

419747

346102

3.0

2.6

5.3

3.8

  1. Mining & Quarrying

99129

71728

100811

76704

100954

74841

1.7

6.9

0.1

-2.4

  1. Manufacturing

510673

507701

501599

543682

569094

584164

-1.8

7.1

13.5

7.4

  1. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply &Other Utility Services

62114

61945

66537

66717

71383

72858

7.1

7.7

7.3

9.2

  1. Construction

225077

213851

229196

220536

249103

237836

1.8

3.1

8.7

7.8

  1. Trade, Hotel, Transport, Communication &Services related to Broadcasting

517644

501747

560913

544404

598724

581418

8.4

8.5

6.7

6.8

  1. Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services

659189

727192

714789

771317

761405

820009

8.4

6.1

6.5

6.3

  1. Public Administration, Defence& Other Services

314250

359272

356731

381131

392211

422770

13.5

6.1

9.9

10.9

GVA at Basic Price

2775063

2768167

2929185

2937824

3162622

3139997

5.6

6.1

8.0

6.9

 

STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19

(at 2011-12 Prices)

 

Item

(`in crore)

RATES OF GDP (%)

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2017-18

2018-19

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)

1595219

1619781

1705974

1730288

1852663

1851644

54.7

54.5

54.9

54.5

2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)

313990

360466

369303

374216

397215

421664

11.8

11.8

11.8

12.4

3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

960255

921132

968141

976881

1065217

1098675

31.0

30.8

31.6

32.3

4. Change in Stocks

22498

22367

21840

23672

23718

24580

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

5. Valuables

37008

39255

82235

60550

75650

74677

2.6

1.9

2.2

2.2

6. Exports

603715

612021

639145

653613

720410

741318

20.5

20.6

21.4

21.8

7. Less Imports

625621

654228

741150

719530

834103

903814

23.8

22.7

24.7

26.6

8. Discrepancies

46358

62743

72929

72420

73213

88875

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.6

 GDP

2953421

2983537

3118417

3172110

3373983

3397620

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

 

 

5.6

6.3

8.2

7.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 3: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19

(atCurrent Prices)

 

Industry  

(`in crore)

Percentage change

GVA at Basic Price

over previous year

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2017-18

2018-19

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

  1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

563170

475789

566713

496356

606107

510157

0.6

4.3

7.0

2.8

  1. Mining &Quarrying

83403

61720

94696

71203

111699

85920

13.5

15.4

18.0

20.7

  1. Manufacturing

575041

574997

579718

630767

682421

707525

0.8

9.7

17.7

12.2

  1. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply &Other Utility Services

90327

91141

97388

97819

110246

113729

7.8

7.3

13.2

16.3

  1. Construction

260680

250158

271537

264977

309052

300076

4.2

5.9

13.8

13.2

  1. Trade, Hotel, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting

602741

590614

671076

660610

749349

742032

11.3

11.9

11.7

12.3

  1. Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services

767018

855853

859451

942353

963864

1060403

12.1

10.1

12.1

12.5

  1. Public Administration, Defence&Other Services

421386

490842

493286

539378

569466

626198

17.1

9.9

15.4

16.1

GVA at Basic Price

3363766

3391115

3633866

3703464

4102203

4146040

8.0

9.2

12.9

12.0

 

STATEMENT 4: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19

(at Current Prices)

 

 

Item

(`in crore)

RATES OF GDP (%)

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2017-18

2018-19

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)

2082484

2146473

2276387

2358320

2589809

2631073

58.4

58.0

58.4

57.8

2. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)

407970

477261

490957

510364

553398

598719

12.6

12.5

12.5

13.1

3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

1089771

1048896

1120067

1136805

1275225

1327985

28.7

27.9

28.8

29.2

4. Change in Stocks

24726

24724

24522

26682

27470

28661

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.6

5. Valuables

40534

46975

84431

60936

71687

53356

2.2

1.5

1.6

1.2

6. Exports

704192

720269

760244

788999

892035

933243

19.5

19.4

20.1

20.5

7. Less Imports

757439

797968

912714

898512

1069029

1173837

23.4

22.1

24.1

25.8

8. Discrepancies

6254

48717

53504

84199

92770

155039

1.4

2.1

2.1

3.4

GDP

3598492

3715346

3897399

4067793

4433365

4554239

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

 

 

8.3

9.5

13.8

12.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 5: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19

(at 2011-12 Prices)

 

 

APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)

 

(`in crore)

Percentage change

Industry

GVA at Basic Price in H1

Over previous year H1

 

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2017-18

2018-19

  1. Agriculture, Forestry&Fishing

711719

731942

765849

2.8

4.6

  1. Mining & Quarrying

170857

177515

175796

3.9

-1.0

  1. Manufacturing

1018374

1045282

1153258

2.6

10.3

  1. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply &Other Utility Services

124059

133253

144241

7.4

8.2

  1. Construction

438928

449732

486938

2.5

8.3

  1. Trade, Hotel, Transport, Communication &Services related to Broadcasting

1019391

1105317

1180142

8.4

6.8

  1. Financial, Real Estate &Professional Services

1386381

1486106

1581414

7.2

6.4

  1. Public Administration, Defence&Other Services

673522

737861

814981

9.6

10.5

GVA at Basic Price

5543231

5867009

6302619

5.8

7.4

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 6: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19

(at 2011-12 Prices)

 

 

APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)

 

(`in crore)

Rates of GDP (%)

Item

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1

in H1

 

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2017-18

2018-19

  1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)

3215000

3436262

3704307

54.6

54.7

  1. Government Final Consumption Expenditure

674456

743519

818879

11.8

12.1

  1. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

1881387

1945023

2163892

30.9

32.0

4. Change in Stocks

44864

45512

48298

0.7

0.7

5. Valuables

76263

142785

150326

2.3

2.2

6. Exports

1215737

1292758

1461728

20.6

21.6

7. Less Imports

1279850

1460680

1737916

23.2

25.7

8. Discrepancies

109101

145349

162088

2.3

2.4

GDP

5936959

6290527

6771603

100.0

100.0

GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

 

6.0

7.6

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 7: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19

(at Current Prices)

 

 

APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)

 

(`in crore)

Percentage change

Industry

GVA at Basic Price in H1

over previous year H1

 

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2017-18

2018-19

  1. Agriculture, Forestry &Fishing

1038959

1063069

1116264

2.3

5.0

  1. Mining &Quarrying

145124

165899

197618

14.3

19.1

  1. Manufacturing

1150038

1210485

1389946

5.3

14.8

  1. Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services

181467

195207

223976

7.6

14.7

  1. Construction

510839

536514

609127

5.0

13.5

  1. Trade, Hotel, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting

1193355

1331687

1491381

11.6

12.0

  1. Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services

1622871

1801804

2024266

11.0

12.3

  1. Public Administration, Defence&Other Services

912228

1032664

1195664

13.2

15.8

GVA at Basic Price

6754880

7337329

8248242

8.6

12.4

 

STATEMENT 8: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2018-19

(at Current Prices)

 

 

 

 

APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)

 

(`in crore)

Rates of GDP (%)

Item

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1

in H1

 

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2017-18

2018-19

1. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)

4228957

4634707

5220882

58.2

58.1

2.Government Final Consumption Expenditure

885230

1001321

1152117

12.6

12.8

3.Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

2138667

2256872

2603210

28.3

29.0

4. Change in Stocks

49450

51204

56130

0.6

0.6

5. Valuables

87510

145367

125043

1.8

1.4

6. Exports

1424461

1549243

1825278

19.5

20.3

7. Less Imports

1555407

1811226

2242865

22.7

25.0

8. Discrepancies

54971

137704

247809

1.7

2.8

GDP

7313838

7965192

8987603

100.0

100.0

GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

 

8.9

12.8

 

 

H1: April- September